Energy Sound Bites on Fossil Fuels, Part 2

Originally published: August 2, 2024

Last week I shared Energy Sound Bites to support the first core truth about fossil fuels: We must think of fossil fuels in a balanced way.

Today, I’ll share Energy Sound Bites to support the second core truth: Only by using fossil fuels can 8 billion people have the energy they need to survive and flourish.

As a reminder, the goal of Energy Sound Bites is to distill key facts and insights about energy, environmental, and climate issues into a form—100 characters or less—that’s short enough to remember and repeat whenever you need them.

Only by using fossil fuels can 8 billion people have the energy they need to survive and flourish.

• Fossil fuels are a uniquely cost-effective and scalable source of energy.

  • Fossil fuels provide 80%+ of the world’s energy and are growing fast.
    • Fossil fuels are growing in spite of 100+ years of competition and 20+ years of political hostility.¹
    

• Countries that care most about cheap energy are pro-fossil fuels.

  • China, which uses mostly coal to produce “green” technology, has 300+ coal plants in the pipeline.²

  

• Fossil fuels’ success comes from a combination of natural attributes and generations of innovation.

  • Fossil fuels are uniquely cost-effective due to being naturally stored, concentrated, and abundant.
  • Fossil fuels are uniquely cost-effective due to 100+ years of innovation.
  • Only nuclear rivals fossil fuels’ natural attributes—but it has been crippled by irrational policy.

• Unreliable solar and wind are nowhere near able to replace fossil fuels.

  • For most energy needs, solar/wind either can't do what fossil fuels can or are far more expensive.
    • Solar/wind only provide <6% of world energy—and only electricity, which is 1/5 of energy.³
    • Electricity from solar and wind depends on huge subsidies and 24/7 life support from reliable power.
  • Solar and wind’s basic problem is unreliability: they can go near-zero at any time.
    • Solar and wind provide exactly the amount of electricity that’s needed 0% of the time.⁴
    
    • Since solar and wind are unreliable they don’t replace reliable power, they parasite on it.
    • No grid is near 50% solar and wind without huge parasitism on reliable neighbors.
  • Current battery technology can’t make up for solar and wind’s unreliability.
    • Just 3 days of global solar/wind backup with Elon Musk’s Megapacks would cost ~$320T, >3X global GDP.⁵

• Reliable nuclear and geothermal are nowhere near able to replace fossil fuels.

  • In its current state, nuclear is generations away from being cost-effective on a global scale.
    • Producing as much nuclear energy as fossil fuel by 2050 would require adding four 1GW nuclear plants every day.⁶
    • A huge obstacle to scaling nuclear is its crippling by unscientific restrictions.
    • US policy in particular is so anti-nuclear that no one can build a plant cheaply anymore.
  • Geothermal as we know it is nothing resembling a scalable, near-term replacement for fossil fuels.
    • Current geothermal is not scalable as it requires rare geological heat reservoirs, e.g., like Iceland’s.
    • “Deep geothermal” has long-term promise, but is in an experimental state and not at all scalable.

• Cost-effective and scalable energy is essential for humans to flourish on Earth.

  • Earth, including Earth’s climate, is a naturally very inhospitable place.
    • Many people operate under the false assumption that Earth is a “delicate nurturer.”
    • On the “delicate nurturer” assumption, unimpacted nature exists in a stable, safe, sufficient balance.
    • On the “delicate nurturer” assumption, humans are “parasite-polluters” whose impact inevitably leads to disaster.
    • In truth, Earth is not a “delicate nurturer” but “wild potential”: dynamic, deficient, and dangerous.
    • In truth, humans are “producer-improvers” who can impact Earth for the better.
  • Humans can only flourish on Earth if we use energy to transform it into an abundant and safe place.
    • Since Earth is naturally deficient and dangerous, we must use energy to make it abundant and safe.
    • Energy powers machines and frees up time to radically amplify and expand humanity’s productive ability.
  • Fossil fuels make possible an unprecedented quality of life.
    • Thanks to cost-effective and scalable fossil fuel energy, the world has never been a better place to live.
    • Energy from fossil fuels is fundamental to modern life, from agriculture to sanitation to medical care.
    • Thanks to energy from fossil fuels, life expectancy and income have skyrocketed.⁷
    
    • As China’s fossil fuel use increased over 600% since 1980, its life expectancy increased by 15 years.⁸
    • As India’s fossil fuel use increased by over 700% since 1980s, its life expectancy increased by 14 years.⁹
    
  • Fossil fuels have brought billions out of poverty with the opportunity for prosperity.
    • Thanks to cost-effective energy (mostly fossil fuel), extreme poverty has plummeted to <10% from 42% in 1980.¹⁰

• Most of the world’s 8 billion people lack the energy they need to flourish.

  • The vast majority of the world needs much more energy to get out of poverty.
    • 3 billion people use less electricity than an American refrigerator.
    • 1/3 of the world uses wood and animal dung for heating and cooking.¹¹
    
  • Even in America, millions cannot afford enough energy.
    • Almost 1 in 3 American households say they’ve gone without food or medicine to pay for energy.
    • 1 in 5 of American households say they’ve kept their home at an unsafe temperature due to energy costs.¹²
  • The massive need for energy can only be satisfied if massive fossil fuel use continues and expands.
    • Without fossil fuels, billions of energy-starved people plunge into poverty and early death.
    • With fossil fuels, billions more people can have the opportunity to flourish.

Michelle Hung contributed to this piece.

References